Terrorism Alerts Continue to Confuse the Public
(Published Feb. 16, 2004, in the Centre Daily Times.)

Department of Homeland Security officials announced on Dec. 21 that intelligence reports indicated Americans were facing an increased risk for terrorist attacks on U.S. soil during the holidays. Although officials raised the threat advisory from elevated-risk Code Yellow to high-risk Code Orange, they urged Americans not to change holiday travel plans.

What are Americans supposed to do? On one hand, they are being instructed to remain vigilant but they are being told not to alter personal plans. That apparent conflict creates more fear than comfort for citizens.

This most recent increase in the threat advisory system is the 10th false alarm issued by the Department of Homeland Security since Sept. 11, 2001. The vacillation of the threat advisory system has resulted in what disaster researchers label a false alarm. Although it is unrealistic to expect government officials to be able to accurately predict terrorist events, the downside of repeated false alarms, according to researchers, is that people are less likely to pay attention to future warnings following those false alarms.

A serious problems with the current advisory system is the ambiguity of the system itself. Without a clear statement of the actual condition of risk and specific prescribed actions that can be undertaken to reduce the potential of injury and harm, the public is left with ambiguity, fear, confusion and apathy. Even Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge said the system needs revision.

The public has little understanding of the difference between the color alerts and what preparations are necessary for each alert. The Department of Homeland Security needs to work to refine and simplify the system and better educate the public about the appropriate actions to take in the event of a terrorist attack.

Opinion polls before Sept. 11 indicated that only a small percentage of Americans believed that terrorist attacks would occur on U.S. soil. Since Sept. 11, the vast majority of Americans believe that terrorist attacks are likely in the future and many Americans believe that media reports have played a critical role in shaping their perspectives.

In a survey of 1,023 Americans, two-thirds of the respondents reported that the media had influenced their views of the importance of terrorism as a national problem, according to a report from the Jimirro Center for the Study of Media Influence at Penn State. However, respondents did note that they did not necessarily take related action to prepare for an attack. Only 31.7 percent who reported being influenced by news reports on terrorism said they had taken unspecified steps to combat the problem. More than half of the respondents said they had not canceled travel plans, in spite of admitting to media influence, and almost 45 percent said they had not changed the way they handled mail, in spite of being influenced by news reports on terrorism.

Part of the problem is that news reports rarely outline the steps that can be taken to reduce the likelihood of injury and damage from a terrorist event. Stories are much more likely to focus on the announcement of the threat and the likelihood of the event's occurrence. Second, in announcements, government officials are more likely to focus on the threat and the intelligence reports surrounding the threat instead of the steps that the public can take.

In assessing responses to disasters or potential disasters, we found that people seek information from the news media and then clarify what to do with the information by talking with friends, family members and co-workers. Granted, giving a specific course of action broadly in the media may be difficult since it is almost impossible to predict what kind of act terrorists may undertake.

The appropriate preparations are quite different for a biological terrorist attack when compared with the bombing of a building or the poisoning of the water supply. But few people are likely to read the 11 pages of National Security Emergencies instructions published on the Department of Homeland Security Web site.

The Homeland Security Department faces a quagmire in preparing Americans for future terrorist attacks -- especially given the high number of false alarms since Sept. 11. Research has shown that for a warning to be taken seriously, the anticipated event must be clearly defined, the public must be assured of the government's ability to manage the event and the public must be given a specific set of actions that can be followed to help reduce casualties. That is certainly no small task, but it's a very necessary one if the United States is to successfully deal with terrorism in the 21st century.

Ann Major is associate professor of communications and director of the Jimirro Center for the Study of Media Influence at Penn State. The opinion of the columnist does not necessarily reflect the viewpoint of the university.

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